An active but somewhat uncertain weather pattern is expected from Tuesday through Friday. A weakening system moving out of northern Mexico will bring areas of rain early in the week from Texas into the Ohio Valley, with lighter precipitation possibly reaching the East by midweek. Some mixed precipitation or snow may occur on the northern edge of this system, though details remain unclear. Later in the week, another disturbance approaching from the West Coast may spread additional rain and mountain snow across California, the Great Basin, and the Rockies. This system could eventually bring renewed precipitation to parts of the central and eastern U.S., but timing and coverage are still uncertain. Temperatures will moderate significantly, with much of the central and eastern U.S. returning to near or slightly above normal after the recent cold spell.

Sunday: Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. A weather system tracking farther south into northwest Mexico will limit moisture across Arizona, resulting in generally drier conditions, especially aloft. While some cooling higher in the atmosphere may help produce limited instability, the overall environment looks less favorable for thunderstorm development than previously anticipated. As a result, only a very small chance of thunderstorms remains across far southeast Arizona, where an isolated storm cannot be ruled out. Even there, any activity would be brief and weak. Across the rest of Arizona and the surrounding region, dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail, with no thunderstorm activity anticipated.

Monday: Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. A weather system moving across northern Mexico will slowly approach west Texas by early Tuesday, while more stable conditions remain in place to the east. Southerly winds will bring limited moisture into southern and southeastern Texas, but overall moisture levels will remain modest. Although slight cooling aloft may allow for a small amount of instability near the Big Bend region later in the day, the environment is not favorable for thunderstorm development. Warm air in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere and generally dry conditions farther west will limit storm potential. As a result, most areas will experience quiet weather with no thunderstorms anticipated through Monday.

Tuesday - Saturday: From Tuesday into Wednesday, a weak weather disturbance will move across the Gulf Coast states. Some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will spread inland during this time, which could support a few showers or isolated thunderstorms. However, the system is expected to weaken as it moves east, and the atmosphere will not become very unstable. As a result, any thunderstorms that do develop should remain limited in coverage and intensity, with no severe weather anticipated.

Looking ahead to Thursday through Saturday, another weather system is expected to move out of the Southwest and gradually track east across the southern states. This may allow additional Gulf moisture to return near the coast and into parts of the South. While thunderstorm chances could increase somewhat late in the period, confidence remains low, and the potential for severe storms appears limited at this time.

National Outlook Sources: Weather Prediction Center & Storm Prediction Center