After a weekend storm exits the East Coast on Monday, quieter weather will briefly return before a major pattern shift takes shape. A strong ridge of high pressure will build from the southern Plains to the Midwest, spreading unseasonably warm and breezy conditions eastward through midweek. Highs across Texas and the south-central U.S. will climb well into the 70s and 80s, with gusty winds raising fire weather concerns from western Texas to Wyoming. Meanwhile, a large storm system will move into the West, bringing much-needed rain to California and heavy mountain snow from the Sierra Nevada to the Rockies. Several feet of snow are possible in the highest elevations. As the week progresses, a developing Plains storm will spread precipitation into the Midwest and Great Lakes, with rain south and snow to the north.

Saturday: Strong thunderstorms may develop late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night from the southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Widespread clouds and earlier rain may limit daytime heating, but increasing Gulf moisture and cooler air aloft could still allow storms to strengthen, especially across central and southeastern Texas. Some storms may produce large hail at first, with a growing risk of gusty or damaging winds as activity becomes more organized during the evening. The overall severe threat appears limited but not zero. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out Saturday night, mainly across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, though the risk currently appears low.

Sunday: Strong thunderstorms may continue Sunday across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast, including areas from eastern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida. While the overall storm system will be weakening, enough moisture and instability may remain to support a few stronger storms. Gusty to locally damaging winds and small hail will be the main concerns. The tornado risk appears low, and the severe threat should gradually decrease through the day as winds aloft and surface energy weaken. Storms may be most organized near the immediate Gulf Coast before slowly diminishing Sunday evening.

Monday - Friday: A broad area of high pressure is expected to remain over the eastern Pacific through next week, while another ridge gradually strengthens from the Gulf region into the Bahamas and Caribbean. In between, a series of disturbances will move from the West across the Rockies and into the Plains. These systems may lead to periodic areas of low pressure forming east of the Rockies, bringing rounds of unsettled weather to parts of the central and eastern U.S. One such system could track from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes early to midweek. However, limited moisture should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms low. Another stronger system may develop later in the week as Gulf moisture begins to increase.

National Weather Outlook sources: Weather Prediction Center & Storm Prediction Center