Severe Thunderstorm Threat Across the Midwest
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, capable of producing a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. The strongest storms will develop along a cold front as a low-pressure system moves northeast from Kansas into Ontario. Winds will remain strong through the evening, allowing storms to spread east into Michigan, where damaging thunderstorm winds will continue overnight. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in parts of northeast Arkansas, southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Although instability is weaker than farther north, hail, strong winds, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Residents should monitor conditions and exercise caution if severe weather develops.

Critical Fire Weather in the Southern and Central High Plains
Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of the southern and central High Plains. Afternoon peak heating will combine with downslope and gradient winds to produce sustained southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph in northeastern New Mexico, the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far southwestern Kansas. Relative humidity is forecast to fall to 10 to 15 percent, creating a brief period favorable for wildfire spread. Elevated fire weather concerns extend to surrounding areas where winds of 15 to 20 mph coincide with low humidity. Dry fuels, gusty winds, and low moisture levels will increase the risk of fire ignition and rapid growth for several hours this afternoon. Cloud cover and recent rainfall reduce the overall duration and extent of critical conditions.