As the middle of the week begins, a weather system moving down the West Coast will eventually send moisture and energy into the Southwest and then across the southern U.S. By late week into the weekend, this is expected to bring a growing area of rain, possibly heavy at times, to parts of the south-central states, with precipitation spreading eastward afterward. Colder air to the north could allow for some wintry weather, though details remain uncertain. Rain and mountain snow will continue across California and the Great Basin early in the period, with another Pacific system bringing renewed precipitation to the West Coast by Friday and into the weekend. Overall, temperatures are expected to stay near or above normal for most areas.

Monday: Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. A weak weather system will move east across northern Mexico, but the atmosphere over the southern U.S. will remain too stable and dry to support storm development. Any thunderstorms tied to this system should stay south of the U.S. border. Elsewhere, some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will move north into parts of the south-central states, but it will be limited and shallow. With temperatures and atmospheric conditions remaining unfavorable, the weather across the rest of the country should stay quiet, with no thunderstorm activity anticipated.

Tuesday:  Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. A weak weather system moving out of northern Mexico will bring some increased cloudiness and moisture into parts of Texas, where a few isolated thunderstorms could develop, mainly in western areas. These storms should be limited in coverage and intensity. Later Tuesday night, a weak front moving south could trigger a few elevated thunderstorms across portions of the Mid-South or Tennessee Valley. However, the atmosphere is expected to remain only marginally supportive of storms, and many locations will stay dry. Overall, thunderstorm chances remain low and no severe weather is anticipated.

Wednesday - Sunday: A low chance for thunderstorms exists on Wednesday across parts of the Gulf Coast as a weakening weather system moves through the region. A cold front pushing south, along with slightly cooler air aloft, may allow a few storms to form, but they are expected to remain isolated and non-severe. Forecast confidence decreases heading into the weekend, though a warmer pattern is likely across the Plains and Southeast through Friday. By late Friday into Saturday, a new storm system approaching from the West may bring increasing moisture and a better chance for thunderstorms across Texas and the Gulf Coast states. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, uncertainty remains high and the overall severe weather risk appears low.

National Outlook Sources: Weather Prediction Center & Storm Prediction Center