An increasingly active weather pattern is expected from late this week into the weekend. A weather system moving into the Southwest around Friday will spread rain across the south-central U.S., with some areas possibly seeing moderate to heavy rainfall by the weekend. This system will then move east, bringing precipitation into the eastern U.S., though the exact track remains uncertain. Small differences in its path will determine whether parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast see rain or potential snow, so confidence in wintry impacts remains low for now. Meanwhile, another strong system will develop along the West Coast, increasing rain and mountain snow chances in the Pacific Northwest and California. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal across much of the central U.S., with near-normal conditions elsewhere.

Tuesday: No severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A weak weather disturbance moving into Texas may bring a few isolated, light thunderstorms, but overall activity should remain limited. Conditions will be slightly warmer and more humid ahead of this system, though the atmosphere will not be unstable enough to support strong storms. Meanwhile, another system approaching California could produce scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, mainly across central parts of the state from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Any storms that develop are expected to be weak, with minimal impacts.

Wednesday: Thunderstorm chances are expected to remain low on Wednesday. Stable air will dominate much of the central and eastern United States as high pressure builds east from the Rockies, limiting storm development. A weakening weather system moving from Texas toward the Gulf will have little impact on thunderstorm activity. Out west, a large upper-level system will move into the region, bringing cooler air aloft and some added moisture. This may be enough for an isolated thunderstorm or two across parts of the Great Basin, but overall thunderstorm activity across the country is expected to be minimal.

Thursday - Monday: Thunderstorm chances may increase from Friday through Sunday across parts of Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast. A developing weather system is expected to move through the southern Plains and into the Southeast during this time, bringing warmer and more humid air northward. However, there is still uncertainty in how strong this system becomes and how far north the humidity spreads. Some forecast models keep the most unstable air closer to the Gulf Coast, while others allow it to move farther inland. Current guidance suggests only a limited risk for stronger storms. While a few low-end severe storms are possible, overall confidence remains low, and the threat appears modest at this time.

National Outlook Sources: Weather Prediction Center & Storm Prediction Center