Apex Wx

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Wednesday, October 14 – Friday, October 16

Overview: The unsettled pattern that developed earlier this week will continue Wednesday as low pressure and an associated upper-level trough bring widespread rain, low clouds, and patchy fog to northern Maine. Rainfall will become more scattered during the afternoon as the system gradually departs, while strengthening northwest winds draw cooler and drier Canadian air into the Saint John Valley Wednesday night.

A brief period of high pressure will provide improving conditions Thursday, with increasing sunshine but brisk northwest winds gusting near 30 mph. As winds diminish Thursday night, partial clearing and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall well below freezing, particularly in sheltered valleys.

Another low-pressure system will approach Friday, bringing increasing clouds and a renewed period of precipitation. Snow may develop during the morning before transitioning to a rain-and-snow mixture as temperatures rise into the upper 30s. Precipitation will become widespread during the afternoon and continue Friday night, with accumulating snow increasingly likely as temperatures approach freezing. Higher terrain and colder locations should favor greater accumulation, while mixing and melting may limit totals in the lower valleys. Northeast winds will strengthen Friday night, adding to the increasingly wintry conditions across northern Aroostook County.

Wednesday: Rain and patchy fog during the morning will give way to scattered showers as the afternoon progresses, although skies will remain cloudy. Rainfall totals of 0.25–0.50 inch are possible, with temperatures reaching the lower 40s. Northeast winds will gradually turn northwest as the system departs. Scattered showers may linger into Wednesday night, with a 40% precipitation probability and additional rainfall generally under 0.10 inch. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s, accompanied by northwest wind gusts approaching 25–30 mph.

Thursday: A brief period of drier weather will bring mostly sunny skies, although brisk northwest winds will maintain a distinctly chilly feel. Afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 40s, with sustained winds of 12–16 mph and occasional gusts near 30 mph. Winds will gradually diminish during the evening as high pressure approaches. Partly cloudy skies and lighter winds overnight will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s, with freezing conditions across the Saint John Valley.

Friday: Clouds will increase as another low-pressure system approaches northern Maine. A slight chance of snow during the morning will give way to widespread rain and snow later in the day, with precipitation probabilities increasing to 100%. Temperatures will reach the upper 30s, with approximately 1 inch of snow possible. Rain and snow will continue Friday night, with another 1–2 inches of accumulation possible as temperatures fall into the lower 30s. Northeast winds will strengthen, gusting near 30 mph.

Saturday, October 17 – Tuesday, October 20

Overview: The low-pressure system responsible for Friday's rain and snow will gradually depart northern Maine on Saturday, although a lingering upper-level trough will maintain cold, unsettled conditions. Scattered snow showers may continue through the day, particularly across higher terrain, while strong northwest winds gusting near 40 mph will produce blustery conditions across the Saint John Valley. Temperatures will remain in the middle 30s, with little additional snow accumulation expected.

High pressure will build toward northern New England Saturday night and Sunday, bringing diminishing winds, increasing sunshine, and a gradual improvement in conditions. However, the Canadian air mass will remain firmly established, keeping Sunday afternoon temperatures near 40°F. Partial clearing and lighter winds will favor radiational cooling, with temperatures falling into the lower 20s both Saturday and Sunday nights, particularly in sheltered valleys.

A transition toward milder weather will begin Monday as the upper-level trough shifts eastward and the flow becomes increasingly west-to-southwesterly. Warm-air advection will gradually replace the weekend's colder air mass, allowing temperatures to recover to around 50°F Monday and the middle 50s Tuesday. Generally dry conditions and intervals of sunshine should accompany the warming trend, although occasional clouds may pass through the region as the upper-level pattern becomes less amplified.

Saturday: Lingering snow and snow showers will accompany the departing storm system, with a 40% precipitation probability during the day. Little or no additional accumulation is expected, although mostly cloudy skies and strong northwest winds will maintain blustery conditions. Temperatures will reach the middle 30s, with winds of 16–20 mph and gusts approaching 40 mph. Snow showers may continue into the early evening before skies become partly cloudy overnight. Temperatures will fall into the lower 20s, with a 30% evening precipitation probability.

Sunday: High pressure will bring improving conditions, with mostly sunny skies and considerably less wind than Saturday. Despite the sunshine, the lingering Canadian air mass will keep afternoon temperatures near 40°F. Dry weather will prevail as the upper-level trough gradually shifts eastward. Partly cloudy skies and lighter winds Sunday night will favor another period of radiational cooling, with temperatures falling into the lower 20s, particularly in sheltered sections of the Saint John Valley.

Monday: A gradual warming trend will become more apparent as milder air begins spreading into northern Maine. Partly sunny skies and generally dry conditions will allow afternoon temperatures to reach around 50°F, a noticeable improvement over the weekend. Some passing clouds may accompany the transition toward a less amplified upper-level pattern, although precipitation is not expected. Mostly cloudy skies Monday night will limit radiational cooling, with temperatures settling into the middle 30s.

Tuesday: The warming trend will continue as west-to-southwest flow brings milder air into the Saint John Valley. Partly sunny skies and generally dry conditions will accompany afternoon temperatures reaching the middle 50s, considerably warmer than during the weekend. The milder air mass should help melt any remaining snow at lower elevations, although shaded and higher-terrain locations may retain some accumulation. Partly cloudy skies Tuesday night will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 30s.

Long Range Trends: Wednesday, October 21 – Tuesday, October 27

The latest 8-14 day outlook indicates equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across northern Maine. Persistent upper-level ridging over the central United States should favor a generally quieter pattern across the Northeast, although regional uncertainty remains. Typical late-October temperatures in the Saint John Valley feature daytime highs in the middle to upper 40s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with seasonal cooling continuing.

Outlooks updated 7-9 AM weekdays & 8-10 AM weekends and holidays. Long range outlooks indicate broader temperature and precipitation trends rather than precise day-to-day forecasts. Common abbreviations: NWS = National Weather Service; WPC = Weather Prediction Center; SPC = Storm Prediction Center; CPC = Climate Prediction Center, NHC = National Hurricane Center

Updated every 3-6 hours from NWS Caribou

Weather Notice

Apex Wx forecasts are based on available observations, computer model guidance, and other meteorological data. Conditions and forecast guidance can change, and information displayed here may not reflect the latest official forecast or warning information. Always visit NWS Caribou for the latest official forecasts, watches, warnings, and advisories for northern Maine.

Apex Wx is a private weather information service unaffiliated with NOAA or the National Weather Service and operated by Joseph Becker. Dr. Becker earned a Certificate in Weather Forecasting from Penn State University and is a trained NWS SKYWARN Storm Spotter.

Credits

• Sun and Moon data from the U.S. Naval Observatory, with additional astronomical information from timeanddate.com.
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• Through December 2026, additional archived Apex Wx weather data are available through the University of Utah's MesoWest.
• Current and archived Apex Wx weather data are available through Synoptic Data, the successor to MesoWest.
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How accurate are forecasts?

Forecast confidence generally decreases as lead time increases. Forecasts for the next few days usually provide considerably more detail and confidence than forecasts a week or more in advance. Beyond about 7 days, forecasts are most useful for identifying broader weather patterns and temperature or precipitation trends rather than predicting exact conditions at a particular place and time.

Individual computer-model runs—especially those depicting specific storms, snowfall amounts, or other details a week or more in advance—should not be treated as forecasts by themselves. Extended forecasts will change as new observations become available and models better resolve the evolving atmospheric pattern. Check updated forecasts as the event approaches.

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Weather radar is an invaluable tool for tracking precipitation and storms, but radar images should not be interpreted as a real-time picture of conditions at the ground. Data collection, processing, transmission, mosaicking, and app updates can introduce delays, and radar detects energy returned from precipitation at varying heights above the surface. During rapidly developing or moving storms, conditions at your location may therefore differ from what a radar app appears to show. Use radar together with current observations and official National Weather Service warnings.