Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Across Central U.S.
A significant severe weather outbreak is expected this afternoon into this evening across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and parts of the Mid-South. Numerous thunderstorms are likely to develop and intensify, with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and a few strong tornadoes. The greatest risk will focus from central and eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and western Kentucky, where warm, unstable air and strong winds aloft will support organized and potentially dangerous storms.

Additional storms may extend into the Mid-South and parts of the Upper Midwest, though early day activity could limit how unstable the atmosphere becomes in some areas. Even so, conditions remain favorable for severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. Storms may evolve into lines during the evening, increasing the threat for widespread damaging winds. Areas farther south and west, including parts of Texas, could also see isolated strong storms later in the evening, though confidence there remains lower.