Significant Flash Flood Threat Focused on Southern Missouri
The greatest risk for flash flooding today and tonight is expected across southwestern and southern Missouri, including portions of the Ozarks, where a moderate risk of excessive rainfall is in place. Repeated thunderstorms are forecast to move over the same areas, producing prolonged periods of heavy rain. Abundant tropical moisture flowing northward will fuel these storms and increase rainfall totals. The rugged terrain of the Ozarks could worsen flooding impacts by funneling water into narrow valleys and low-lying areas. While the flood threat has decreased somewhat around the Kansas City area, heavy rain and localized flooding remain possible there. Farther south and east, the threat will gradually diminish. In Florida, slow-moving thunderstorms may also produce isolated flash flooding, especially near inland urban areas.

Dry Thunderstorms Raise Wildfire Concerns Across the Southwest
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across parts of the Four Corners region and the Great Basin. Many of these storms will produce little rainfall because the air near the ground is very dry, causing much of the precipitation to evaporate before reaching the surface. As a result, lightning strikes may occur without significant wetting rain, increasing the risk of new wildfire starts. The greatest concern is in areas where vegetation is already very dry and susceptible to ignition. Farther south across portions of Arizona and New Mexico, higher moisture levels may allow some storms to produce more rainfall. However, lightning could still spark fires around the edges of these wetter storms. Forecasters continue to monitor where the transition between dry and wet thunderstorms will develop.