From Saturday through early Wednesday, an active weather pattern will affect much of the country. A strong system moving across the southern states will bring widespread rain from the Southwest to the Southeast and up the East Coast. Some areas, especially from the southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley, could see moderate to locally heavy rainfall, with a low risk of localized flooding. There is also some uncertainty about whether parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could see wintry precipitation on the northern side of the system. Meanwhile, a developing storm along the West Coast will bring periods of heavy rain to California and significant mountain snow to the Sierra, with precipitation spreading inland. Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the central U.S., while cooler conditions settle into the West.

Thursday: Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. High pressure in the upper atmosphere will remain in place over the central United States, helping to keep conditions dry and stable for much of the country east of the Rockies. Farther west, a developing upper-level trough moving into the Great Basin and southern California will bring slightly cooler air aloft. This cooling could create a brief window for weak instability, and an isolated lightning strike cannot be completely ruled out, especially near Utah. However, dry air moving in at mid-levels of the atmosphere by late morning should quickly limit any storm development, keeping overall thunderstorm chances very low.

Friday: Isolated strong thunderstorms may develop Friday evening into the overnight hours across parts of western Texas, with the main concern being small to marginally severe hail. During the day, increasing moisture flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico will combine with cooler air moving in aloft as a storm system approaches from the Southwest. This setup will gradually make the atmosphere more unstable late in the day. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the evening, especially as winds strengthen a few thousand feet above the ground. Because the storms will likely develop after sunset, they should remain elevated rather than surface-based, limiting the overall threat. However, a few storms could become strong enough to produce hail up to around one inch in diameter.

Saturday - Wednesday: From Saturday through Sunday, a developing storm system will move from Texas across the Deep South and into the Southeast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread from eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday into Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas by Sunday as a cold front pushes east. While a few stronger storms are possible, the overall severe weather threat remains uncertain. Limited instability and questions about how much Gulf moisture can move north may keep the risk on the lower end. Periods of steady rain could also reduce the atmosphere’s ability to become more unstable. Early next week, drier and calmer weather is expected as high pressure builds in, though the pattern becomes less certain by midweek.

National Weather Outlook sources: Weather Prediction Center & Storm Prediction Center