Apex Wx

Fort Kent & the Saint John Valley, Maine
Weather Information

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The Saint John Valley begins Thursday beneath a relatively benign but increasingly transitional pattern. A broad trough remains established across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States, while a weak surface ridge that has provided the recent stable conditions shifts offshore. In its wake, southerly flow is transporting warmer and increasingly moist air northward into northern Maine.

NWS Caribou has issued a statement for patchy dense fog through about 9 am this morning. As low pressure and a cold front approach from Quebec, mid- and high-level clouds will remain overhead today, with daytime highs climbing into the low 80s across Fort Kent and nearby communities. Southerly winds will increase to around 5–10 mph. Some instability aloft may allow a few showers to develop later in the day, though only a 10% chance of precipitation is currently forecast.

For tonight, clouds will thicken as moisture increases. Scattered showers become more likely overnight, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. The chance of precipitation increases to around 30%. Lows will fall into the lower 60s, with south winds around 6 mph.

Friday looks to be the most active day of the period. Showers may begin during the morning, with coverage increasing through the day as the cold front approaches. Thunderstorms become more likely by afternoon, particularly if breaks in the cloud cover permit additional destabilization. A few storms could become strong, with gusty winds the primary concern and small hail also possible. Daytime highs will top out in the mid- to upper 70s, with southwest winds around 9–10 mph shifting to the northwest behind the front and diminishing to around 5 mph or less during the evening.

Friday night, clouds will diminish behind the front as surface high pressure begins building eastward from the Great Lakes. Mostly clear skies will overspread the Valley, with overnight temperatures falling into the upper 40s. Light northwest winds will gradually become more westerly overnight.

High pressure will spread from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast on Saturday, with the cold front well east of northern Maine. Cooler, much drier and less humid air will spread into the Valley beneath northwest flow. Mostly sunny to partly sunny skies are expected, with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s. Northwest winds around 5–10 mph, occasionally higher, will add to an early-autumn feel. Mostly clear skies will remain over Fort Kent and surrounding communities Saturday night, with lows falling into the lower 50s and light southwest winds. High pressure moves away Sunday as a cold front drops southeastward from the northwest, bringing increasing cloudiness, showers, and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder to the region by afternoon. There is not a great deal of moisture associated with the front, and NWS Caribou currently anticipates rainfall totals generally under 0.25 inch. Sunday's high will peak in the lower 70s. Sunday night, partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers are expected as the front continues southeastward. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid-40s with light northwest winds.

High pressure north of the Valley builds into the region Monday, bringing mostly sunny skies. Highs will top out in the upper 60s to around 70 with light northwest winds. The front will stall to the south, allowing for a slight chance of a passing shower, but most locations should remain dry. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected Monday night, with overnight temperatures in the mid-40s.

Mostly sunny skies are expected Tuesday, with highs in the lower 70s. Clouds will increase Tuesday night, along with a slight chance of showers as an occluding low-pressure system approaches across Quebec. Lows will fall into the upper 40s.

Forecast confidence decreases Wednesday regarding the influence of the approaching low-pressure system on the region. High pressure over the Maritimes may help maintain partly sunny skies for a time, although there is currently a 40% chance of showers, mainly during the afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 70s. Mostly cloudy skies are expected Wednesday night with a 30% chance of showers as temperatures fall into the lower 50s.

Current trends favor above normal temperatures and precipitation across the Saint John Valley. Temperatures are expected to average above early-September normals, although occasional cooler days remain possible. The pattern may also bring several opportunities for showers as weather systems pass through the region. This does not mean rain throughout the period, but overall rainfall is more likely to finish above normal.