A developing storm system across the Southeast is expected to move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night and strengthen into a potential nor’easter, but its exact track remains uncertain. If the storm tracks closer to the coast, it could bring heavy coastal rain, accumulating inland snow from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, strong winds, and possible coastal flooding. A farther offshore path would limit precipitation and wind impacts, with heavier amounts staying mainly near the Delmarva and eastern North Carolina. Confidence in specific impacts remains low. Meanwhile, an atmospheric river may bring several inches of rain to northern California and southwestern Oregon, along with heavy mountain snow. Much colder air will spread into the eastern U.S. early next week before temperatures gradually moderate.

Today: A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is in place today from eastern Missouri across much of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. Storms developing from the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. Warm, moist air in place ahead of a strengthening low pressure system will help fuel storm development, especially late morning into the afternoon as activity spreads northeast. A few storms could become intense before conditions become less favorable later in the day. Farther west, along the central California coast, a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning may bring locally strong wind gusts as it moves south.

Friday: A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast late Friday evening into Friday night across parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and possibly southern Tennessee. While scattered and generally weak storms are possible earlier Friday from the eastern Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, a better chance for more organized thunderstorms is expected overnight near the northern Gulf Coast states. Increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening winds aloft will support storm development, mainly above a cooler surface layer. The primary concern will be hail, which could become severe in a few stronger storms. Damaging winds appear less likely, but some storms may still produce locally gusty winds as activity increases overnight.

Saturday:  A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast Saturday across parts of southern North Carolina, central and southern South Carolina, Georgia, southern Alabama, and nearby areas of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Mississippi. Storms may become stronger as they spread east through the day, supported by increasing moisture, daytime heating, and strong winds aloft. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail, especially as activity moves toward the Georgia and Carolina coasts and northern Florida by late afternoon and evening. While widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, conditions may allow a few storms to intensify. Forecasters will continue to monitor trends, as the risk level could be adjusted if storms organize further.

Sunday - Thursday: A developing weather pattern late this weekend into early next week will feature a strengthening storm system off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast as upper-level energy deepens along the East Coast. This could lead to notable low pressure intensifying over the western Atlantic, while colder high pressure builds southward through much of the Gulf Coast states before gradually weakening. Farther west, the previously blocked pattern over the Pacific is expected to ease, with storm systems remaining mainly offshore and a flatter west-to-east flow setting up across much of the country by mid to late week. A cold front is forecast to drop south from Canada through the central and eastern U.S., but limited Gulf moisture should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms low.

Today: A critical fire weather threat is expected today across portions of the Southern Plains, including the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Missouri. A surface low moving from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes will combine with dry downslope winds from the southern Rockies to create warm, dry, and breezy conditions ahead of a southward-moving cold front. Sustained west-northwesterly winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity around 15 percent will overlap with dry vegetation, increasing the potential for wildfire spread, even in areas that received some rainfall last week. Farther south in western Texas, slightly lighter winds of 15-20 mph and 20 percent humidity support an elevated fire risk. These conditions warrant close attention for outdoor fire activity.

Friday: A critical fire weather threat is expected Friday across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. A developing surface low over the southern High Plains will combine with dry westerly winds to create warm, dry, and breezy conditions. Sustained west winds of 20-25 mph and low humidity around 15 percent during the afternoon peak heating will make vegetation highly receptive to fire spread. These conditions have prompted the issuance of critical fire weather highlights, signaling an increased risk for wildfires. Outdoor burning and other fire-prone activities should be approached with caution, as any spark could quickly lead to rapid fire growth under these strong, dry, and windy conditions.

Saturday - Wednesday: A heightened fire weather threat will continue across the Southern Plains into early next week. On Friday, a mid-level short wave and surface lee trough will bring dry, breezy downslope conditions to eastern New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle, with west winds and low humidity creating critical fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. On Saturday, a dry cold front will push northerly winds into central and southern Texas, maintaining elevated fire concerns. Meanwhile, widespread rain across much of the Southeast on Sunday should temporarily reduce fire risk, but limited rainfall in Florida and persistent dry northerly flow Monday could increase fire potential in southern Florida. Early next week, fire threats may redevelop across the central and southern High Plains, though timing and strength remain uncertain.