A colder pattern will settle into much of the eastern United States this weekend as a cold front pushes south toward the Gulf Coast. Attention then turns to a developing coastal storm that could affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Sunday night into Monday. While confidence is growing that a storm will form and strengthen offshore, its exact track remains uncertain. A path closer to the coast would bring heavier rain along the shore, accumulating inland snow, gusty winds, and possible coastal flooding. A farther offshore track would mean lighter impacts. Meanwhile, the West will stay unsettled, with periods of heavy rain and mountain snow, especially from northern California to Oregon, where an atmospheric river may develop.

Today: Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight, though a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in several regions. A storm system moving through the Upper Midwest toward Lake Superior may produce scattered thunderstorms across parts of the Great Lakes, mainly early today. In the West, a band of showers and a few thunderstorms will move inland across southern California this morning, with activity gradually decreasing. Later today and tonight, isolated thunderstorms could develop along the Pacific Northwest coast and into northern California. A few storms are also possible over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies, with brief gusty winds but minimal severe threat.

Thursday: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into early evening across much of central and southern Illinois, Indiana, western and northern Kentucky, and southwestern Ohio. A developing storm system moving out of the Plains will interact with increasing warmth and moisture to create conditions favorable for severe weather. While there is still some uncertainty in the exact details, current indications suggest storms could develop by early afternoon and strengthen as they track east. The main threats include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Storms may become more widespread during the evening before gradually weakening later Thursday night as the system lifts northeast.

Friday: The risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night appears very low, with chances currently below 5 percent nationwide. A weakening storm system will move toward the Great Lakes while high pressure builds along the West Coast. A front trailing from the weakening system is expected to stall from the Carolinas westward to the Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will increase along and south of this boundary, but warmer air aloft may limit storm development. While wind patterns could support organized storms, instability looks limited. For now, any severe threat appears conditional and uncertain, though parts of the Gulf Coast will be monitored for changes.

Saturday - Wednesday: Weather patterns this weekend are expected to remain fairly stable across most of the country. In the Pacific, a broad storm system with several smaller disturbances will linger offshore, possibly sending a weakening front into parts of the Pacific Northwest late Saturday into early Sunday. However, the coldest air and better chances for thunderstorms should stay over the ocean. Farther east, high pressure building over the Rockies and Plains will help keep much of the central and eastern U.S. dry and more stable. A front near the Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic Coast could spark a few thunderstorms, but overall severe weather potential appears limited at this time.

Today: Much of Iowa, far southwestern Wisconsin, and far northwestern Illinois are under a Critical Fire Weather threat, while parts of the southern High Plains are also at risk. Strong westerly winds of 25 mph or higher, combined with very low humidity around 10–25%, will create conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread. The southern High Plains—from northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle—may see especially dangerous conditions, with spotty areas reaching Extremely Critical levels. In the Midwest, central Iowa faces high-end Critical fire weather, as dry fuels and recent lack of rainfall increase wildfire potential. Residents should remain alert, limit outdoor burning, and follow local fire restrictions, as any ignition could quickly grow under these dry, windy conditions.

Thursday: Dry and windy conditions will create a heightened wildfire risk across the southern High Plains and southern Plains. A surface low will approach the Ozarks, while strong west-northwesterly winds of 20+ mph combine with very low humidity near 15 percent. These conditions, particularly across the Texas Panhandle into central and northeastern Oklahoma, overlap with dry fuels that haven’t received significant rain in recent weeks, creating areas of Critical Fire Weather. Residents should be cautious with outdoor activities, avoid open flames, and follow local fire restrictions, as any spark could quickly lead to rapid wildfire spread under these dry, windy conditions.

Friday -Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will persist across the Southern Plains through Saturday. Strong westerly winds aloft, combined with dry surface conditions and downslope flow, will create dry, breezy conditions favorable for wildfire spread on Thursday and Friday, especially across northeastern New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and Oklahoma. By Saturday, a dry cold front will move through southern Texas, bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures, which may slightly reduce the threat, though dry fuels still support elevated fire risk. Early next week, upper-level troughing over the eastern U.S. could bring dry, post-frontal flow into the Southeast and Florida, but potential rainfall may limit the threat. Residents in affected areas should remain alert and follow fire safety guidelines.