Marginal Risk for Isolated Severe Hail from the Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley
A limited severe weather threat is expected this evening into the overnight hours from parts of the southern and central Plains into Missouri and western Illinois. While most daytime storms should remain below severe levels, conditions may become more favorable tonight as moisture increases and a disturbance moves overhead. A few thunderstorms could develop near the intersection of a dryline and cold front in Oklahoma late this afternoon, with a slight chance of hail. More widespread elevated storms are expected after midnight from Oklahoma and Kansas into Missouri and western Illinois. A few of these storms may produce isolated severe hail, but the overall threat remains marginal and fairly limited in coverage.

Elevated Fire Weather Risk Develops Across the Southern High Plains
Gusty winds and very dry air will combine to create elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A developing low pressure system over eastern Colorado will shift toward west Texas, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing westerly winds, especially across eastern New Mexico. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, along with occasional higher gusts, are expected. At the same time, warm temperatures and downslope winds will push humidity levels below 20 percent, and in some spots below 15 percent. With dry vegetation in place, this combination may support rapid fire spread for several hours. Conditions will improve tonight as a cold front moves through, bringing cooler air and higher humidity.