Next week, much of the country will see a mix of warming temperatures and active weather. An upper-level ridge will build from the southern Plains into the Midwest early in the week, bringing well above-normal temperatures and breezy conditions, with warmth spreading to the East Coast by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the West will see a shift as a large upper trough brings much-needed moisture, producing moderate to heavy rain along the California coast and heavy mountain snow from the Sierra Nevada through the central and northern Rockies. The Midwest and Ohio Valley will experience storm systems late in the week, with snow on the northern edges and strong winds in the Plains. Record-high temperatures are possible in parts of Nebraska and Iowa, while the West remains cooler with accumulating snow.

Saturday: A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast from eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening through tonight. Strong storms may produce damaging winds and a few tornadoes, particularly across east Texas into southern Mississippi. A deepening upper-level system over the southern High Plains will interact with warm, moist air spreading north from the Gulf, helping thunderstorms organize along a Pacific cold front moving southeast. In eastern Texas to central Louisiana, scattered storms are expected to strengthen into a line by early evening, increasing the potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadoes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms with large hail are possible across southwest Oklahoma and central Texas due to daytime heating and unstable air, though overall activity will be more scattered.

Sunday: A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is expected Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. The main threats include damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, with the potential for one or two strong tornadoes. Early in the day, thunderstorms will likely remain limited inland, but by mid-to-late afternoon, increasing southwesterly winds and rising moisture will create an unstable environment favorable for stronger storms. Embedded supercells may develop along an eastward-moving convective line, enhancing the risk for severe weather. The activity is expected to continue into the evening as storms approach the coast. Residents in northern Florida and southern Georgia should stay alert for severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening.

Monday: A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast Monday across southern California coastal areas, from south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin. Strong storms may develop as early as late morning, fueled by increasing low-level moisture, daytime heating, and strong mid-level winds. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes, with the terrain of the Transverse Ranges enhancing storm rotation. An offshore low-pressure system and associated upper-level jet will support upward motion, helping thunderstorms organize and intensify as they move inland. Residents along the southern California coast should monitor conditions Monday, as scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact local areas, particularly in the Los Angeles Basin, with the main threats being strong winds and a couple of tornadoes.

Tuesday - Saturday: Model guidance for February 17–22 indicates generally low confidence in the evolution of large-scale weather patterns across North America. A disturbance emerging from the Intermountain West on Tuesday will bring a deep surface trough across the Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley before weakening over the Great Lakes Wednesday. Strengthening winds and shear could support organized thunderstorms if enough instability develops, but limited moisture from the Gulf will likely keep convective potential low through midweek. Later in the week, a southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies, Plains, and Mid-Atlantic may allow for stronger moisture return and possible lee cyclogenesis (i.e., a developing low pressure), which could increase the risk for severe thunderstorms by next weekend. At this time, confidence in timing and intensity remains low.

National Weather Outlook sources: Weather Prediction Center & Storm Prediction Center